LendingTree then calculated the concentration of million-dollar homes in each city by dividing the number of homes valued at $1 million or higher by the total number of homes in the statistical area, according to the report.
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Articles on this Page
- 06/14/18--08:20: _A real-life Westwor...
- 06/22/18--13:36: _See inside the Cali...
- 06/24/18--07:30: _Inside a bitcoin bi...
- 06/27/18--08:56: _People are buying u...
- 06/27/18--09:12: _11 celebrities you ...
- 06/27/18--15:02: _Mini housing bubble...
- 07/02/18--15:02: _Rental prices are s...
- 07/10/18--12:40: _San Francisco's tec...
- 07/10/18--14:18: _Housing demand in t...
- 07/11/18--14:18: _Manhattan's office-...
- 07/12/18--12:58: _What a $1 million h...
- 07/15/18--05:45: _The 22 American cit...
- 07/17/18--15:00: _There's trouble ahe...
- 07/17/18--16:30: _Here's how San Fran...
- 07/18/18--08:00: _What a $250,000 hom...
- 07/18/18--13:17: _Nobody wants to buy...
- 07/20/18--06:00: _'Million Dollar Lis...
- 07/20/18--09:40: _Atlantic City was o...
- 07/21/18--06:40: _The 31 most underra...
- 07/22/18--05:30: _The US housing gap ...
- Cerro Gordo, an abandoned mining town in Lone Pine, California, that looks straight out of Westworld is currently for sale for just under $1 million.
- It boasts nearly 300 acres of land, historic buildings, many of which are being restored, and a history that's both violent and rich in economic growth.
- The ghost town perfectly captures the essence of the Wild Wild West, frozen in time.
- Rob Lowe and his wife Sheryl are selling their 10,000 square-foot estate, listed for $47 million with Sotheby's International Realty.
- It's in Montecito, California, the area hit with mudslides earlier this year that killed at least 17 people.
- The home sits on 3.4 acres of land and has views of the Pacific Ocean and nearby Santa Ynez mountains.
- Investors are buying New York City condos to rent out instead of live in at a record pace, according to Bloomberg, citing StreetEasy data.
- The three buildings that generated the most investor interest were in Brooklyn and Queens, showing that investors don't only have their eyes on Manhattan.
- Builders of higher-end homes are under pressure to lower prices and speed up sales, which should give more negotiating power to buyers with bigger budgets.
- 06/27/18--09:12: 11 celebrities you never knew had giant real estate empires
- Some of the world's biggest celebrities have used their enormous net worths to invest in real estate.
- Ellen DeGeneres has become known for her house flipping expertise. She has earned millions over the years selling properties to fellow celebrities.
- Tyra Banks, who has been notably frugal in the past, was advised by her accountants to start spending more of her earnings: Now she owns four properties in Los Angeles alone.
- Housing prices across the US spiked more than 6% in April from a year earlier.
- Seattle and other metro areas saw historic rises in home prices.
- The only sector of the Case-Shiller index that saw prices fall was New York City condos.
- 07/02/18--15:02: Rental prices are soaring around the US
- Bubbles are forming in housing markets in cities all over the US.
- Rental prices are soaring 10-15% in many markets.
- Meanwhile, they are sharply lower in bigger cities like New York City and Washington.
- Only 59 units with an asking rent of less than $2,000.
- 353 units with asking rents between $2,000 and $3,000.
- 1,180 units with rents over $5,000.
- San Francisco's median house price rose by $205,000 in the first half of 2018, as iterated in a mid-year report by real estate agency Paragon.
- The price swell is one of the city's biggest in its history, sending the average home price in the city to a whopping $1.62 million.
There's a direct correlation between these price hikes and the tech industry's ever-expanding presence in the Silicon Valley region.
- Homeownership rates in the US continue to fall below potential.
- But rising rates aren't weighing on demand for homes — even for millennials.
- It is possible millennials are not rejecting homeownership, but rather delaying it.
- 07/11/18--14:18: Manhattan's office-building bubble is officially deflating
- Manhattan office property sales fell by more than a quarter this spring.
- This is partly due to a lack of mega-deals from big companies and Chinese conglomerates.
- Meanwhile, plenty of new supply is coming on the market.
- 07/12/18--12:58: What a $1 million home looks like in 25 major American cities
- Million-dollar listings have become commonplace in the US real estate market.
- But when you compare the cost-per-square-foot for million-dollar listings across the country, you'll find very different results.
- In Tampa, Florida, $1 million will fetch more than 5,000 square feet, while the same priced home in New York City buys less than 900 square feet.
- 07/15/18--05:45: The 22 American cities with the most million-dollar homes
- Million-dollar homes are most likely to be found on the East or West coasts of America.
- LendingTree collected real estate data from more than 155 million properties across the United States to calculate which cities have the highest concentration of homes worth $1 million and up.
- Four cities in California have more than 10% of homes valued over $1 million.
- 07/17/18--15:00: There's trouble ahead in the global housing market
- The easy environment financial and housing markets have had for nearly a decade are ending.
- Prices will waiver as investors remain in denial and refuse to sell at lower prices.
- But soon that denial will turn to panic, and prices will plummet.
- Stage One: Mania -- Prices rise at an accelerating rate as factors like excess central bank liquidity/loose credit/hot foreign money drive a virtuous bidding cycle well above sustainably afforable levels.
- Stage Two: Peak -- Increasingly jittery owners attempt to sell out before the party ends. Supply jumps as prices stagnate.
- Stage Three: Bust -- As inventory builds, sellers start having to lower prices. This begins a vicious cycle: buyers go on strike not wanting to catch a falling knife, causing sellers to drop prices further.
- the supply of homes for sale during the "all important" spring market rose at 3x last year's rate
- 30 of America's 100 largest cities now have more inventory than they did a year ago, and
- mortage applications for new homes dropped 9% YoY
- Toronto: Prices clearly peaked in early 2017. Prices are now down 3% vs last year.
- Syndey: Compared to last year, prices are now down 5% and supply has ballooned 22%.
- Stockholm & Vancouver: Over a recent 6-month period, prices in the luxury property market fell 9% and 7.6%, respectively.
- New York City: In Q1 2018, prices were down 8% YoY and sales were down 25%. NYC's luxury properties fared even worse.
- San Francisco: After hitting a record price high in January, the city has seen a rare spring decline in prices, while rents across the SF Bay Area are starting to "cool off"
- Consider selling: If you're a homeowner and are not committed to remaining in your property for the next decade+, do some scenario planning. If prices fell 20%, how much of a financial and emotional impact would that have on you? If you have substantial equity gains in your home, Stage Two is the time to protect them. If you have little equity right now, make sure you're fully aware of the repercussions you'll face should you find yourself underwater on your properity. What will your options be should you lose your job in the next recession? Whether to hold, or sell now and rent, is a weighty decision; and the rationale differs for each household -- so we strongly recommend making it with the guidance of your professional financial advisor.
- Raise cash: The vicious cycle that begins as Stage Two transitions into Stage Three is deflationary. Lower prices beget lower prices. During this period, cash is king. By sitting on it, your purchasing power increases the farther home prices drop. And when the dust settles, you'll be positioned to take advantage of the resulting values in the real estate market. We've written at length about the wisdom of this strategy given current market conditions, as well as how, while waiting for lower prices, you can get 30x the return on your cash savings than your bank is willing to pay you, with lower risk. Our recent report on the topic is a must-read.
- Educate yourself: Yes, real estate is overpriced in a number of markets. But it has been and will remain one of the best ways available to the non-elites to amass income and tangible wealth. And as mentioned, when the next Stage 3 brings prices down, there will be value to be had -- potentially extreme value. If you aren't already an experienced real estate investor, now is the time to educate yourself; so that you'll be positioned to take informed action when the time to buy arises. Our recent podcast interview on Real Estate Investing 101 is a good place to start.
- 07/17/18--16:30: Here's how San Francisco's housing market took a turn toward crisis
- San Francisco's housing market is now commonly referred to as being in a "crisis."
- More than 60% of renters are in rent-controlled units, and even those have become less affordable.
- The San Francisco Planning Commission examines the situation in a new 88-page report.
- Buildings with more than 5 units account for 52% of the city’s housing units but occupy only 19% of its land area.
- Single-family homes account for 27% of the housing units but occupy 62% of its land area.
- 07/18/18--08:00: What a $250,000 home looks like in the biggest city in every state
- Housing prices are on the climb, and with them, the chance of getting less space for your money.
- With the help of Trulia, we found how much home $250,000 will buy in the biggest city in every state.
- In Wichita, Kansas, $250,000 can buy 3,504 square-foot house, while in New York City it can buy a 900 square-foot co-op apartment.
- 07/18/18--13:17: Nobody wants to buy the world's largest log cabin
- Ryan Serhant is the star of Bravo's "Million Dollar Listing" and the head of one of the top real-estate teams in America.
- He moved to New York City in 2006 as a struggling actor and applied skills useful in show business to real estate.
- Good salesmanship isn't about forcing people to buy things they don't want, but guiding them to a choice they're genuinely happy with, he said.
- He explained how he's learned to better balance his priorities in the past year to make himself a stronger leader.
- Business coach Marie Forleo
- Skinnygirl CEO Bethenny Frankel
- GOAT CEO Eddy Lu
- Girl Scouts CEO Sylvia Acevedo
- Atlantic City, New Jersey suffered dire financial troubles after a wave of casino closures in 2014.
- The city avoided bankruptcy after the state intervened, which primed the city for a comeback.
- Two new casinos opened in June, which is expected to add about 3,500 rooms to the supply pool, as well as about 6,500 jobs.
- Local developers are launching hip food destinations, and the $220 million Stockton Gateway Project is further developing the beachfront college.
- Sports betting was recently legalized, which is also likely to help the casino-driven economy.
- 07/21/18--06:40: The 31 most underrated American cities to live in
- Smart homeowners should take out an affordable mortgage on an undervalued home, according to economists at SmartAsset.
- SmartAsset recently found the most undervalued cities to buy a home in the US, based on value per square foot.
- It looks like the eastern side of the US is the most undervalued area to buy a home — more than half of the top 10 cities are located there.
- Housing completions in the US increased more than 2% over the last year.
- The housing market is now almost at a 3-year low in the gap between housing supply and demand.
- While the increase in completions is a welcome sign, two measures of future housing supply declined.
- The number of building permits issued, a leading indicator of housing starts, decreased by 3.0 percent year over year.
- Housing starts decreased by 4.2 percent, compared with a year ago.
- The stock of housing units authorized to be built increased by 10.3 percent, and the number of housing units under construction increased by 4.9 percent on an annual basis.
- The number of completed homes, which is additional new net supply added to the housing stock, increased by 2.2 percent compared with a year ago.
- The annual increase in completions signals modest immediate relief from the housing shortage and sends an optimistic message about the housing market.
- In June, the overall pace of housing starts, at 1.17 million units, is a 12.2 percent decrease from the previous month. Based on the less volatile three-month moving average, the volume of total residential (single- and multi-family) housing starts is 54,000 less than May 2018, but 99,000 units higher than a year ago.
- Housing starts are an important indicator of future supply as the housing market continues to face a supply constraint challenge.
- An estimated seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.26 million housing units were completed in June, representing a 2.2 percent increase from the June 2017 figure of 1.25 million – a modest, yet important, step toward producing enough housing to meet market demand.
In some wild news from the Wild Wild West, a historic ghost town in Lone Pine, California, is for sale for just under $1 million.
A 19th-century mining town, Cerro Gordo boasts more than 300 acres of land and 22 buildings, many of which are being restored — and maybe a ghost or two, considering the town's violent history dating back to the 19th century.
Established in 1865, Cerro Gordo was once the largest producer of silver and lead in California and helped spur economic growth in Los Angeles. The abandoned settlement is basically a history lover's dream.
The deserted land of Cerro Gordo looks like something straight out of Westworld. See for yourself in the photos below.
Cerro Gordo is a 19th-century mining town set in Lone Pine, California, in the Inyo Mountains on 300 acres of land. It's currently for sale for $925,000.
It has 22 structures on site, comprising 24,000 square feet of buildings including a historic hotel, bunkhouse, saloon, chapel, museum, and the Belshaw bunkhouse. Many of the buildings are being restored.
Even artifacts are included.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
"Parks and Recreation" actor Rob Lowe and his jewelry designer wife Sheryl are selling their 3.4-acre estate in Montecito, California, for $47 million, according to a new listing from Sotheby's International Realty.
The couple bought the land, near Santa Barbara, in 2005 and designed the home from the ground up, recruiting an architect, interior designer, landscape architect, and even a feng shui master. It was inspired by the Virginia countryside where the famous actor grew up and was featured on the cover of Architectural Digest in November 2010.
The couple is selling the home because their children are grown and have moved out, they said in statement.
Earlier this year, the Montecito area was hit with recurring mudslides that destroyed hundreds of homes and resulted in more than a dozen deaths, but Lowe's estate was unharmed, partly due to its elevation. The neighborhood is home to many celebrities including Oprah Winfrey, Ellen DeGeneres, and Jeff Bridges.
Below, take a tour of the $47 million estate.
Actor Rob Lowe and his wife Sheryl listed their Montecito mansion with Sotheby's International Realty for $47 million. They bought the land back in 2005.
Source: Sotheby's International Realty
They completed the home in 2009. It was the vision of architect Don Nulty, interior designer David Phoenix, landscape architect Mark Rios, and feng shui specialist David Cho.
Source: Sotheby's International Realty
The estate sits on 3.4 acres of land and totals 10,000 square feet of living space, offering ocean and mountain views. "I always wanted that house where everybody wants to go," Lowe told Architectural Digest.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Anthony Di Iorio made his fortune as an early adopter of hot cryptocurrencies bitcoin and ethereum.
Now, the cryptocurrency billionaire is spending some of his cash on two video game-inspired real estate projects in Toronto.
Di Iorio recently purchased two spaces in Toronto. One is a 15,000 square foot office space for his blockchain company Decentral, and the other is a three-story penthouse which will serve as both his home and an experimental private event space — and which cost him $21 million.
Di Iorio's plans for both spaces are extremely unconventional. At the office space, in particular, he's bringing a sci-fi fantasy to life with holographic receptionists, "moving walls," and secret tunnels, where remote controlled Aston Martins zoom underfoot beneath glass floors.
Here's a glimpse of Di Iorio's vision for his futuristic office and his gorgeous new home:
Decentral's new office is located near Lake Ontario's waterfront in Toronto.
The office isn't ready yet, but we got to see some renderings of what Decentral plans for its office to look like when it's all done. When you first enter the office, you'll be greeted by a hologram receptionist and four different concealed doors.
The hologram receptionist will ask a question, and how you answer determines which door will swing open. They haven't decided yet what that question will actually be, but the company likes the idea.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
People are buying up New York City condos and turning them into rentals like never before.
Last year, 1,313 condos were purchased as investments instead of residences, according to data compiled by listings website StreetEasy and cited by Bloomberg. That's the highest since StreetEasy started keeping track in 2010.
The buyers are betting that property values in America's most-populated city will continue to appreciate, even though the pace of rent growth is slowing down.
A separate StreetEasy analysis published late last year found that studio apartments generated more income per dollar invested than one, two, or three-bedroom apartments. In general, more expensive properties returned less; apartments that cost under $750,000 yielded a median 3.3% return, while those that cost over $3 million yielded 2.6%.
As Bloomberg's Oshrat Carmiel reported, investors don't only have their eyes on Manhattan, the city's most populous borough. The three buildings that generated the most investor interest were in Brooklyn and Queens.
These buyers could be coming in at an advantageous time when lots of new buildings are shooting up across the city. StreetEasy found that in May, the inventory of homes in the city reached an all-time high. Although it's typical for many homes to get listed before the busy home-shopping season, the spike this year was more than usual.
In addition, buyers are in a good position to score a discount, because that's one way builders can get their properties off the market faster. Even though more condos were available in May, sales dipped for a third straight month, according to StreetEasy.
"More affordable homes are the hardest to find, and are sure to sell quickly," Grant Long, StreetEasy's senior economist, said in a report. "But higher-end homes, particularly those joining the market from the ongoing stream of new development, will be pressured to lower prices or linger on the market. This summer is poised to offer an excellent negotiating opportunity for buyers with big budgets."
What do you do when you're a celebrity making more money than you can keep track of? Buy houses!
While some celebrities enjoy spending their money on ridiculous things, like hand carved bathtubs and dog villas, others choose to play the long game, investing their ample funds into real estate.
Taylor Swift, Tyra Banks, and Leonardo DiCaprio are just a few famous faces who have veritable real estate empires.
Keep scrolling to see who else spends their money on property.
Ashton Kutcher is continuing to add to his list of multi-million dollar residences in Southern California.
When Ashton Kutcher purchased his first home, he said it was the scariest financial decision he's ever made.
Today, the actor owns several multimillion dollar homes in Southern California with his wife, Mila Kunis, including a $10 million beach house in Carpinteria, and a $10.2 million primary residence in the Beverly Hills Post Office neighborhood.
Taylor Swift owns at least $84 million in real estate across four states.
Taylor Swift has been collecting properties across the United States since she was 20 years old. In 2009, she purchased a condo in Nashville's Music Row worth an estimated $3 million. Two years later, she bought an estate in the city that boasts a pool and a 2,000-square-foot guesthouse in addition to a $3.97 million Beverly Hills mansion.
It doesn't end there. In 2013, Swift purchased a $17.75 million mansion in Rhode Island, followed by a $20 million duplex penthouse apartment in New York in 2014, and a $25 million Beverly Hills mansion in 2015.
Seems like she outgrew her duplex penthouse in New York, considering she bought an $18 million dollar apartment directly next door to it, and a $9.75 million dollar apartment on the same block soon thereafter.
Leonardo DiCaprio owns property on the East and West Coast — plus an entire island.
Leonardo DiCaprio has amassed a huge collection of properties since the '90s.
In 1994, he purchased a compound in Hollywood Hills from Madonna for $2 million, followed by a beach bungalow near Carbon Beach in California four years later for about the same cost. Both of these properties have been on and off the rental market ever since.
Some years later, in 2005, DiCaprio bought an entire island off the coast of Belize for $1.75 million, on which he is developing an eco-resort set to open sometime this year. An avid environmentalist, the actor is also launching initiatives to help protect the island and its ecosystem.
More recently, DiCaprio purchased a $3.67 million apartment in a luxury building in New York, then bought another unit in the same building for $8 million in 2014. That same year, he acquired a $5.2 million dollar house in Palm Springs, followed by a 'small' home in Malibu for $23 million. His most recent purchase was a Tudor in Los Feliz for $4.9 million.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Historic spikes in Seattle and other metros. But New York condos skid.
Prices of houses and condos across the US surged 6.4% in April from a year earlier (not seasonally-adjusted), and a sharp 1% from March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, released this morning. The index is now 8.8% above the nutty peak of “Housing Bubble 1” in July 2006 just before it collapsed, and 50% above the trough of “Housing Bust 1.” Note the disproportionate spike in April:
That 8.8% increase since the peak of the last housing bubble — “Housing Bubble 1” in this millennium — isn’t an increase over some state of languish that the housing market needed to exceed. It was the peak of the definitive housing bubble that then collapsed and helped push the global financial system to the brink.
Real estate is local though prices are impacted by national and global factors, such as monetary policies and offshore investors for whom “housing” in the US is an asset class and in many cases also escape route. These local and global factors inflate local housing bubbles. When enough local housing bubbles come together at the same time, even as some other housing markets remain calm, they turn into a national housing bubble, as illustrated in the chart above.
The Case-Shiller Index is based on a rolling three-month average; today’s release is for February, March, and April. The index is based on “home price sales pairs,” comparing the sales price of a home in the current month to the last transaction of the same home years earlier. The index incorporates other factors and uses algorithms to arrive at each data point. It was set at 100 for January 2000; hence an index value of 200 means prices as figured by the index have doubled.
So here are the most splendid housing bubbles in major metro areas in the US:
The Case-Shiller home price index for the Boston metro jumped nearly 2% from the prior month and is up 6.9% from a year ago. During Housing Bubble 1, from January 2000 to October 2005, the index soared 82% before dropping. It now tops that crazy peak by 16.7%. Note the phenomenal 4-point spike in April, the largest such spike in the Boston data series:
The Seattle metro index spiked 2.5% from the prior month. In terms of points, the index jumped 6.6 points, the biggest monthly jump in the data series. The index has now jumped 13.1% from a year ago and is 31% above the peak of Seattle’s insane Housing Bubble 1 (July 2007). Note the historic spike in April:
The index for the Denver metro jumped 1.2% from March, the 30th monthly increase in a row, is up 8.6% from a year ago, and 52% from the crazy peak in July 2006, with a historic spike in April:
The Case-Shiller home price index for the Dallas-Fort Worth metro rose 0.9% from March, its 51st relentless monthly increase in a row, and 5.7% from a year ago. Since its peak during Housing Bubble 1 in June 2007, the index has surged 46%:
The Atlanta metro index rose 0.8% from March and 5.5% from a year earlier. It now exceeds the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in July 2007 by 5.8%:
The Case-Shiller home price index for the Portland metro jumped 1% from a month ago, 5.9% from a year earlier, and 23% from Portland’s nutty peak of Housing Bubble 1 in July 2007. It has ballooned 130% since 2000:
San Francisco Bay Area:
The index for “San Francisco” includes the counties of San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, and San Mateo, a large and diverse area consisting of the city of San Francisco, the northern part of Silicon Valley (San Mateo county), part of the East Bay and part of the North Bay. The index jumped 1% from March, 11% from a year ago, and 38% from the insane peak of Housing Bubble 1. It’s up 164% since 2000. Note the spike in April:
The Los Angeles metro index in April rose 0.8% from March and 8.2% year-over-year. Between January 2000 and July 2006, the index had skyrocketed 174%, then it crashed. The index now exceeds the peak of Housing Bubble 1 in 2006 by 2.4%. The index for San Diego is practically a mirror image.
New York City Condos:
Oh boy, no spike! On this page, the index for condos in New York City is the only index that fell in April from March, down 0.5%. With all the spikes in the other metros, this is practically refreshing. But this index has produced many monthly dips over the years, some of them a lot steeper, that turned out to be blips. The index rose “only” 2.7% from a year earlier and is now 18.5% above the peak of Housing Bubble 1, having surged 175% since 2000:
So the index is getting spiky in a number of metros. But Seattle’s beautiful spike is unequaled in the series. These indices get adjusted over the next few months as more data becomes available, so some of the spikes might get toned down a little. This happened before. Or they might get adjusted upwardly. But as it stands, there was a sharp acceleration in some cities over the rolling three-month period for “April” (February, March, April). Some of this may have been driven by home buyers trying to “lock in” mortgage rates before they rise even further.
Median asking rent for one-bedroom apartments across the US rose 4% in June compared to a year ago, to $1,209. And for a two-bedroom, it rose 3.7% to $1,442. But these averaged-out national figures gathered from advertised for-rent apartments in multifamily buildings hide the city-by-city drama on the ground, with rents plunging in some of the largest and most expensive metros but soaring by the 10% to 15% in many other cities. People feel either some relief or horrendous rent inflation, depending on where they live. So here we go.
In New York City, the median asking rent in June for a 1-BR dropped 3.1% from a year ago to $2,860 and is down 15.1% from the peak in March 2016. “Median” means half of the rents are higher, and half are lower. For a 2-BR, the median asking rent dropped 3.9% from a year ago to $3,220 and is down 19.1% from the peak in March 2016.
Rents in New York had long been the second-highest in the country, after San Francisco. But last month, the median 2-BR asking rent was surpassed for the first time by Los Angeles, due to two factors: plunging rents in New York and soaring rents in Los Angeles.
These are median asking rents in multifamily apartment buildings, including new construction, as they appeared in active listings in cities across the US, collected by Zumper. These rents do not include “concessions,” such as “1 month free” or “2 months free.” Single-family houses for rent are also not included, as are studios and units with more than two bedrooms. Zumper releases the data in its National Rent Report.
Chicago rents are in freefall. The median 1-BR asking rent plunged 10.2% in June from a year ago, to $1,500, and is down 26.8% from the peak in October 2015. For a 2-BR, it plunged 15.8% and is down a breath-taking 31.7% from the peak in September 2015.
Chicago is in a special category in terms of big cities: There has been plenty of new construction in recent years, but the population has been declining as tax burdens are growing while the city is tottering very slowly toward what may become the largest municipal bankruptcy filing in the US.
In Honolulu, the median asking rent for 1-BR fell 5.6% year-over-year in June to $1,700 and is down 20.2% from the peak in March 2015. For a 2-BR, it fell 4.3% to $2,200 and is down 25.4% from the peak in January 2015.
Washington DC rents are suddenly coming unglued: 1-BR rents fell 2.3% year-over-year to $2,160 and are down 7.7% from their peak just last December. And the 2-BR rent has plunged 15.8% from last June, which was their peak. That was fast.
San Francisco remains the most expensive major rental market in the US. The median asking rent for a 1-BR apartment rose 1.4% year-over-year to $3,500 in June, but is down 4.6% from the peak in October 2015. For a 2-BR, it rose 4.0% to $4,680 but remains down 6.4% from the peak in October 2015.
There’s no shortage of supply in San Francisco. Zillow lists 1,613 apartments for rent at the moment, up 45% from the 1,149 listed in August 2016. But it’s the wrong supply.
The cheapest unit with bath listed on Zillow today — not counting rooms without bath, shared rooms with bunks, and the like — is a basic studio in the Mission Dolores area, for $1,195. And then it goes from here:
In other words, 73% of the apartments listed for rent on Zillow have asking rents of over $5,000! But these units include condos for rent, which tend to be high-end, plus 3-BR and larger units. Neither condos-for-rent nor 3-BR and larger are included in Zumper’s data. The median asking rent (half of the rents are higher, and half are lower) for all units listed on Zillow would be over $5,000.
Hence our local term, “Housing Crisis” — a crisis of affordability, not availability.
The table below shows the 16 of the 100 most expensive major rental markets in the US. The shaded area shows peak rents and the movements since then. The black bold “0%” in the shaded area means that these markets set new records in June. Note: If rents are down by a few bucks from the peak a few months ago, and red, it doesn’t yet mean that the market has turned – a turning point would require more prolonged data.
Seattle stands on its own in terms of a construction boom producing an onslaught of high-end rental supply that the market has now trouble swallowing, even as affordability as become a crisis. I discussed this yesterday [Is This Going to Crush Rents in Seattle?]
Despite this phenomenal supply, Seattle’s median 1-BR asking rent matched the record set in May ($1,990), even as 2-BR rents remain down 4.5% from the peak in April 2016.
In Southern California, the rental market is going completely nuts. The area has five cities on the above list: Los Angeles, San Diego, Santa Ana, Anaheim, and Long Beach. In four of them, rents have jumped between 10% and 15% from a year ago.
Of the three Bay Area cities on the list, rents are down from the respective peaks in all three: San Francisco, Oakland, and in San Jose. In the latter, they’re barely down from the peak, not enough to pass judgement. But rents in Oakland have dropped between 13% and 15% from their respective peaks. This was once the red-hot market for San Francisco’s rent-refugees, but it is cooling off.
The table below shows Zumper’s list of the 100 most expensive major rental markets in the US, in order of median asking rent for 1-BR apartments in June, and percentage changes from a year ago.
Many of the less expensive rental markets have double-digit year-over rent increases. In fact, of the 35 cheapest rental markets at the bottom of the list, 1-BR rents jumped by 10% or more in 24 of them, and by 15% or more in 11 of them (a third!). In the 2-BR arena, it’s similar: Of the 35 cheapest markets on the list, 21 had double-digit rent increases and seven of them over 15%. And for renters living those markets, it’s really tough; for them, none of the averaged-out national numbers make any sense (use the browser search box to find a city).
San Francisco's median house price rose by $205,000 in the first half of 2018, according to a mid-year report by real estate agency Paragon. The swell is one of the city's biggest in its history.
The rise in median home value now makes the average price for a house in the city a whopping $1.62 million, at a time when the average income of a San Franciscan household clocks in at $118,400, according to The East Bay Times.
There's a direct correlation between these price hikes and the tech industry's ever-expanding presence in the Silicon Valley region in recent years. Tech behemoths like Google, Facebook and Apple operate out of the Bay Area and recruit a lofty volume of high-earning workers that need to find living quarters here.
These workers' high salaries, combined with the city's already dwindled housing supply, have spawned an affordability crisis within the real estate market, jacking up home values to an astronomical degree.
Read the full Paragon report here.
As we reflect on our country’s recent Independence Day commemoration, we find that the desire to achieve the American dream of homeownership still exists. Because, while the U.S. homeownership rate remains close to half-century lows, demand is strong, especially among millennials. In fact, results of our Real Estate Sentiment Index survey of title agents and real estate professionals conducted in the second quarter of 2018 showed nearly 87 percent of first-time home buyers were in the prime home-buying age of 26 to 35, which corresponds with the ages of millennials.
When considering homeownership rates, it’s important to note that traditional measures do not account for shifts in underlying demographic or economic factors. Instead, they report only the share of households that are homeowners. Analysis based on these traditionally calculated homeownership rates has resulted in mistaken conclusions that are often propagated as conventional wisdom. We developed our annual Homeownership Progress Index (HPRI) to provide a more in-depth look into the changes in homeownership rates over time by accounting for the impact of critical lifestyle, societal and economic trends that influence the likelihood of renting or owning a home. Understanding these homeownership characteristics and tracking how they change over time allows us to measure potential homeownership demand.
Homeownership Rate Continues to Underperform Potential
The figure below shows the actual homeownership rate versus potential homeownership demand represented by the HPRI. In years past, potential homeownership demand was greater than the actual homeownership rate. This was largely due to baby boomers making the lifestyle and economic decisions that drive homeownership demand, notably settling down to form households of their own. From 1984 to 1986 and again in 1992, the actual homeownership rate was at or above the potential demand. This was most likely a result of innovations in mortgage finance, and the economic boom of the 1990s. In the late 1990s to the early 2000s, the potential demand again peaked above the actual homeownership rate. Achieving the dream of homeownership may have been restricted then by access to credit or the down payment necessary to purchase a first home.
The housing crisis brought an interesting change, as the homeownership rate exceeded the potential demand from 2008 to 2012. Speculation, easy access to credit and exuberance during the housing boom of 2004-2007 spurred the homeownership rate to record highs. As the housing market turned in 2008 and economic fundamentals supporting potential homeownership demand decreased in subsequent years, the homeownership rate exceeded potential homeownership demand, with the gap reaching almost 9 percent at its peak in 2010.
This contrasts sharply with the dynamic observed in 2017, the most recent year of available data to estimate the HPRI. In 2017, potential homeownership demand grew by one percent over the prior year, while the actual homeownership rate underperformed potential demand by almost 9 percent. So, what could be the cause of this?
Millennial Demand Yet to Peak
One likely answer rests with the largest generational cohort – millennials. Millennials are often referred to as a “renter generation,” because they have prioritized furthering their education and thus delayed getting married and having children, which are critical lifestyle triggers to buying a first home. However, the dream of homeownership is far from dead for this age group. Nearly 80 percent of millennials who responded to a recent study by Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies agreed that homeownership was part of achieving the American Dream. Is it possible that they are not rejecting homeownership, but rather, simply delaying it?
Are Millennials Rejecting, or Just Delaying, Marriage?
Homeownership is strongly correlated with marriage, and millennials are getting married later than earlier generations. The median age for a first marriage in 2016 was 27.4 for women and 29.5 for men – roughly seven years more than the median ages in 1960. According to analysis in our HPRI, the homeownership rate is 30 percent higher among married couples than other households.
We find that the decision to have children also influences the decision to own. Compared to households with no children, the homeownership rate is 5.4 percent higher for households with one or two children, and an additional percent point higher for households with three or more children. Millennial lifestyle choices to delay marriage and children are part of the reason the homeownership rate is lower than we expect.
Millennials Keep Getting Smarter
While important lifestyle decisions, such as marriage or owning a home, appear to take place later in life for millennials, they are getting educated in unprecedented numbers. As educational attainment levels increase, we can expect homeownership rates to eventually grow, as well. In fact, the importance of education to homeownership has only increased over time. Our HPRIshows that the impact of education in relation to homeownership has nearly doubled in 10 years. In 1997, the difference in the homeownership rate between those without a high school degree and those with a college degree was 11 percent. By 2016, this gap had widened to 21.3 percent, though it did experience a modest decline in 2017 to 20.5 percent. This goes to show that for many millennials, the key to homeownership will be getting a college education.
Millennials’ lifestyle and economic decisions are some of the main reasons we currently have a lower homeownership rate than expected, based on our HPRI. Yet, it is reasonable to expect homeownership rates to grow as millennials continue to make important decisions, including attaining an education and, later in life, getting married and buying a home. However, the question remains: as millions of millennials look to purchase their first homes, will the housing market provide enough homes for them?
For Mark’s full analysis on potential homeownership demand, the top five states and markets with the greatest increases and decreases in the HPRI, and more, please visit the Homeownership Progress Index.
What makes it a Homeownership Progress Index?
Traditional measures of homeownership rates do not account for shifts in underlying demographic or economic factors. Instead, they report just the share of households that are homeowners. Analysis based on these traditionally calculated homeownership rates has resulted in mistaken conclusions that are often propagated as conventional wisdom. The HPRI provides a deeper look into the changes to homeownership rates over time by accounting for, and isolating, the impact of critical lifestyle, societal and economic trends that influence the likelihood of renting or owning a home.
Why does the HPRI tell a different story than other measures?
Changing demographic and economic factors either increase or decrease someone’s potential to be a homeowner. For example, increasing marital rates, household size, educational attainment, income and improving economic conditions all increase potential demand for homeownership. The HPRI measures the potential for homeownership demand based on these underlying factors. For example, the potential for, or likelihood of, homeownership may increase because of rising educational attainment or income growth. It’s important to point out that the likelihood of homeownership doesn’t have to match the actual homeownership rate. For example, it’s possible that someone may be highly likely to desire homeownership, but are unable to find any houses they can afford to buy. In that case, potential homeownership demand would be higher than the actual homeownership rate.
What do the HPRI number values mean?
The HPRI value is the percentage of households that are likely to be homeowners, based on underlying lifestyle, societal, and economic conditions, instead of renters. Changes over time in the HPRI are caused by changes in the underlying lifestyle, societal and economic trends.
About the First American Homeownership Progress Index
The First American Homeownership Progress Index is an economic model that uses annual IPUMS CPS individual anonymized census survey data to measure the influence of household circumstances and demographic, societal and economic characteristics on one’s choice to own a home. Demographic characteristics include age, race/ethnicity, gender, marital status and number of children. Additionally, the model includes educational attainment, income, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate and the unemployment rate to help explain changes in homeownership rates. The individual factors influencing homeownership can be isolated, while all other factors are held equal, to provide a unique perspective on the impact the isolated factor has on the likelihood of homeownership.
The HPRI can provide the likelihood of homeownership for a given demographic and economic profile. For example, an educated man with two children and a higher income will have a higher likelihood of homeownership than a single man without a higher education degree.
In the second quarter, sales of large office properties in Manhattan fell 26% from the same period a year ago. It was the worst Q2 dollar volume in years:
Last year’s Q2 sales – as weak as they’d been – were propped up by the last-hurrah-deal undertaken by a Chinese conglomerate. The $2.2-billion sale of 245 Park Avenue to HNA Group was the sixth largest transaction in Manhattan ever. HNA paid $1,282 per square foot for the tower, which was called “among the highest price-per-pound for this type of asset.” It was the last big Chinese property purchase in Manhattan.
This year, Q1 was propped up by the $2.4-billion sale of Chelsea Market to Google. The deal accounted for over half the total transaction volume in the quarter. The price was a blistering $2,181 per square foot.
“What brought the sales volume down in Q2 was the absence of the high-profile, billion-dollar office deals we’ve become accustomed to in this thriving market,” CommercialCafé, a division of Yardi, said in its report. All Q2 had to show for as its largest office deal was the sale of 5 Bryant Park for $640 million.
With 10 small-ish office deals, no mega-deals from Google and Chinese conglomerates, the quarter was a “disappointment,” according to CommercialCafé:
The price Google had forked over for its trophy building in Q1 ($2,181 per square foot) pushed the average price to a record $1,266 per square foot. But in Q2, the average price fell 16% from a year ago to $867 per square foot, near the lower portion of the range of the past few years:
So volume has collapsed. But prices aren’t exactly crashing. There are no forced sales. Everything is slow and orderly. Hope prevails. And the rationalizing has begun.
“Over the past two years, office sales activity in Manhattan has slowed to a more sustainable level, finally coming down from the highs of 2014 and 2015,” CommercialCafé said.
Meanwhile, everyone is patiently waiting for the next Google to come along, now that the Chinese conglomerates with their murky structure and unlimited funds and their thirst for overpriced trophy projects have been sidelined by unfortunate events – including China’s crackdown on capital flight, a state take-over of some of the conglomerates including long prison sentences for some of the executives, and a blanket prohibition last summer on squandering capital on acquiring commercial real estate, such as office buildings and hotels, in foreign countries.
CommercialCafé used Yardi Matrix data to analyze all Manhattan office transactions recorded through July 2, 2018, of $5 million or more, and larger than 50,000 square feet. In the case of mixed-use properties, only those with over 50% office space were taken into account.
The largest deal in Q2 was the sale of 5 Bryant Park to Savanna for $640 million, by Blackstone and Brookfield Properties, which had acquired the 34-story tower in 2006 as part of a larger deal involving numerous properties across the US.
There was a foreign buyer – but not the kind Manhattan’s office sector has been praying for. It involved the fourth largest deal in Q2. Germany’s second largest bank, Commerzbank, in which the German government still holds a 15% stake as a result of its bailout, paid $333 million for the 400,000-square-foot tower at 222 E. 41st St. The building is leased entirely to NYU Langone Medical Center. The seller was Columbia Property Trust.
And plenty of new supply is coming on the market. In Q1, three properties totaling 1 million square feet were delivered. In Q2, 3 World Trade Center, an 80-story tower with 2.8 million square feet was delivered. While some high-profile companies have leased some space, including McKinsey Group, according to Yardi Matrix data, 1.5 million square feet of office space remain available.
For the remainder of the year, 4.7 million square feet of office space are scheduled to be delivered, including 55 Hudson Yards, a 1.4 million-square-foot 51-story tower.
Now if we could just get our Chinese conglomerates back! They were so much fun!
NOW WATCH: Why Rolex watches are so expensive
Still, how much space seven figures will buy in different parts of the country ranges drastically. A million dollars could fetch buyers as little as 846 square feet in New York City and as much as 5,392 in Tampa, Florida.
That's according to our friends at Trulia, who rounded listings in the $1 million range for the 25 largest metros in the US by population to find out how home sizes compare.
Below, check out what a million-dollar listing looks like around the US, ordered from lowest to highest cost per square foot.
Listing price: $999,000
Square feet: 5,392
Price per square foot: $185
Newark, New Jersey
Listing price: $979,000
Square feet: 4,885
Price per square foot: $200
Listing price: $989,900
Square feet: 4,570
Price per square foot: $217
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
America's coasts are bursting with million-dollar homes.
To pinpoint exactly where million-dollar homes are located — and how close they are to each other — LendingTree collected real estate data for more than 155 million properties in the United States. The home values are based on public taxes, deeds, mortgages, foreclosure data, and proprietary local data.
The data shows that expensive properties are more likely to be on the coasts than inland America with the exception of Denver, Colorado. California is home to the top three spots with the most million-dollar homes, thanks in part to the high concentration of startups and tech giants in the area. Four cities in California have more than 10% of homes valued over $1 million, and San Jose is the only place where the median home value (among all homes) is above $1 million.
Below, check out which US cities have the highest share of million-dollar homes in America.
22. Charlotte, North Carolina
Percent of million-dollar homes: 1.02%
Median value of homes: $187,000
Median value of million-dollar homes: $1,295,000
21. Baltimore, Maryland
Percent of million-dollar homes: 1.07%
Median value of homes: $270,000
Median value of million-dollar homes: $1,214,000
20. Riverside, California
Percent of million-dollar homes: 1.12%
Median value of homes: $332,000
Median value of million-dollar homes: $1,339,000
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Our good friend John Rubino over at DollarCollapse.com just released an analysis titled US Housing Bubble Enters Stage Two: Suddenly Motivated Sellers.
He reminds us that housing bubbles follow a predictable progression:
Rubino cites recent statistics that may indicate the US national housing market is finally entering Stage Two after a rip-roaring decade of recovery since the bursting of the 2007 housing bubble:
Taken together, these suggest that residential housing supply is increasing as sales slow, exactly what you'd expect to see in the transition from Stage One to Stage Two.
If that's indeed what's happening, Rubino warns the following comes next:
Rubino's article is timely, as we've lately been seeing a proliferation of signs that the global boom in housing is suddenly cooling. I've also recently encountered similar evidence that the housing market in my own pocket of northern California is weakening, and I'm curious to learn if other PeakProsperity.com are seeing the same in their hometowns.
The Global Housing Bubble
Housing, as they accurately say, is local. Conditions differ from region to region, making generalizations of the overall market difficult.
That said, the tsunami of $trillions printed by the world's central banking cartel since 2008 clearly found its way into the housing market.
The world real estate market is HUGE, over $200 trillion. That dwarfs the global debt and equity markets. So it's no surprise the central authorities did all they could to reverse the losses the GFC created for property owners.
As a result, many of the most popular locations to live are now clearly in bubble territory when it comes to home prices:
The chart above displays the most bubblicious major cities around the world in red. But it's important to note that the merely 'overvalued' markets denoted in yellow, and even some of the green 'fair-valued' ones, are still wildly-unaffordable for the average resident.
For example, in "yellow" San Francisco, where the median home now costs $1.6 million, prices are well-above the excesses seen during the previous housing bubble:
And in 'fair-valued' New York City, the median household must spend 65% of its annual income on housing alone.
Is it any wonder that 70% of millennials who don't yet own a home fear they'll never be able to afford one?
Signs Galore Of Topping Markets
At the end of a speculative bubble, it's the assets that are most overvalued that correct first and correct hardest.
So we would expect that as the highest-priced real estate markets fare from here, the general real estate market will follow.
When we take a closer look at what's currently going on with the red-hot real estate markets noted in the chart above, we indeed see evidence supportive of Rubino's claim that the decade-long Stage One mania may now be ending.
Here's a spate of recent headlines about these cities:
Sure looks like Rubino's predicted Stage Two symptoms of rising supply and stagnating prices.
Local Signs, Too
As mentioned, I live in northern California, quite close to Santa Rosa.
Things here aren't as nuts as they are in San Franscico; but it's still a moderately-affluent region with lots of second homes. It's one of the semi-frothy areas I'd expect to see cooling off in first should there be a downwards turn in macroeconomic conditions.
Located less than an hour north of San Francisco, residential housing prices here have roughly increased 2x over the past six years as the Bay Area has boomed. Supply has been in chronic shortage, exacerbated by the loss of thousands of structures burned during last October's destructive Tubbs fire.
But recently, for the first time in many years, realtors here are beginning to talk of a softening they're seeing in the local housing market.
Median sale prices dropped from May to June, which is counter to previous years. And several towns are seeing year-over-year declines in median price -- something unheard of over the past 7 years.
Meanwhile, the days-on-market ratio for properties is beginning to creep up.
Of the greatest concern to the realtors in my area: bidding wars are no longer happening. Houses are selling either at or below asking prices now. That's a *big* development in a market where houses have routinely sold for $50-100K+ above the listing price.
In a similar vein, I'm hearing evidence of the softening rents down in San Franscico and the East Bay (Oakland/Berkeley). Wolf Richter has done a good job chronicalling the substantial volume of newly-constructed units that have recently hit the market threatening to depress rents, and I've heard from a multi-family unit owner down there how landlords in the area are now finding their rents ~$500 too high for the market to bear.
This is all early and anecdotal data. It's too little at this point to claim definitively that my local housing market has entered Stage Two.
But I'm curious to hear from other PeakProsperity.com readers. What are you observing in your local markets? Are you seeing similar signs of concern?
Please share any insights you have in the Comments section below. Collectively, we may be able to add clarity, in one direction or another, to Rubino's hypothesis.
Prepping For Stage Two
Whatever the timing, Stage Two is an inevitability for today's ridiculously-overpriced real estate markets. It's not a matter of if it (as well as Stage Three) arrives, but when.
Given the data above, I think Rubino is correct in his assessment. Or at least, correct enough that prudent action is warranted today.
This makes even greater sense when considered along with the current trends of rising interest rates and quantitative tightening. Remember, home prices and interest rates have a mathematically inverse relationship: as rates go up, home prices must go down (all else being equal). And as central banks start withdrawing in earnest the excess liquidity that inflated property values to their current nose-bleed heights, expect further downward pressure on prices.
To drive the urgeny home even harder, we haven't even yet talked about the damage an economic recession and/or a painful correction in the financial markets would wreak on the real estate market. With the current expansion cycle the second-longest on record and our all-time-high markets looking increasingly vulnerable, it seems very unlikely we'll avoid at least one of those crises in the near to mid-future.
Here are worthwhile steps we recommend at this point:
In Part 2: The Case For Starting To Build A (Small) Short Position, we conduct a similar analysis into the overvaluation and growing vulnerability of the financial markets (which are highly likely to correct much faster, sooner and more violently than the housing market), including the details on a recent short position we've started building.
The tranquil "free ride" the financial and housing markets have had for nearly a decade are ending. The string of easy gains with little effort are over now that the central bank money spigots are turning off at the same time the "greater fools" pocketbooks are tapping out.
For a brief time, prices will waiver, as investors remain in denial and refuse to sell at lower prices. But soon that denial will turn to panic, and prices will plummet.
Make sure you're positioned prudently before then.
It’s called “Housing Crisis” for a reason.
When we discuss the insane San Francisco housing market, it’s usually in terms of median asking rents ($4,680 a month for a 2-bedroom), the median single-family house price ($1.7 million), the median condo price ($1.2 million), or the Case-Shiller Home Price Index’s 11% year-over-year surge. As different as the data may be, all of the data agrees: San Francisco is a horrendously expensive place to live. But beneath the summary data hides the complexity of a housing market that is now commonly called the “San Francisco Housing Crisis.”
So for the first time, and to get a better grip on the issues, the SF Planning Commission has prepared a “Housing Needs and Trends Report,” or HNTR (12-page executive summary; 88-page full report). The report “represents more than a year’s worth of effort by both Planning staff and consultants to gather and analyze data,” it says. So here are some Key findings:
San Francisco is a city of renters:
65% of the homes are renter occupied; only 35% of the homes are owner occupied.
Over 60% of all rental units are in “rent controlled” buildings. In SF, rent control only applies to older multi-family buildings. It does not apply to buildings completed after June 13, 1979, and it does not apply to condos and single-family homes that are rented out. In other words, none of the newer housing stock is rent-controlled. Rent control in SF means that when the unit comes on the market, it is rented out at market rent, but annual rent increases from that point on are limited based on a measure of inflation.
Even rent-controlled units are becoming less affordable: of the 160,000 rent-controlled units in 2015, about 100,000 units were rented at rates that would be affordable to households earning less than 80% of the Area Median Income (AMI), down from 140,000 in 1990.
A household of two that earns less than 80% of AMI, according to the Mayor’s Office of Housing and Community Development, currently makes $75,750 or less a year.
The Planning Commission’s report pointed out:
Units rented in the previous 2 years, show the erosion of affordability of the city’s rent-controlled stock. Whereas in 1990 a substantial majority of all recently rented rent-controlled units were rented at rates affordable to lower income households, by 2015, only 10,000 such available units were affordable to those households.
9% of households live in about 33,000 affordable housing units, where rents and sale prices are set so that they’re deemed to be affordable at low and moderate-income levels by SF standards.
San Francisco’s growing density:
And home price increases have far outrun inflation (CPI):
Not lack of supply, but lack of affordable supply:
In 2017, thanks to the construction boom, new construction created about 4,500 new housing units; in 2016, new construction created over 5,000 new housing units; this is way more than double the historical average since 1990 of 1,900 units per year. Practically of them were multi-family buildings.
But of those units built since 1990, 28% are deemed to have been “affordable to low and moderate-income households.”
Cost has an impact on who lives in San Francisco
High costs attract high-income households; lower-income households are leaving:
The number of households earning more than 120% of AMI (for a household of 2 = $113,650) tripled since 1990. And of them, 82% are now high-income households earning 200% or more of AMI (for a household of 2 = $189,400).
The number of “low and moderate-income” households earning less than 120% of AMI (for household of 2 = less than $113,650) dropped more in San Francisco than in the region. “This change may be due to households increasing their earnings or it may be because more of these households have left the city, or a combination of both.”
The number of workers who work and live in SF has reached an all-time high of nearly 500,000.
The majority of the increase in workers in SF has been driven by workers earning more than $100,000 per year – individual workers, not households. “However, workers” – not households – “earning less than $75,000 continue to be the majority of workers in San Francisco.”
But with two of those $75,000-a-year earners into one households, the household makes $150,000.
The number of high-income workers earning 200% or more of AMI has surged by 240% since 1990 with over half of that increase coming since 2000. At the same time, workers earning less than 120% of AMI – an individual worker making less than $99,500 – are leaving. In the chart below, note the increase of workers making 30% of AMI ($24,850). Would that be students? (Click to enlarge).
The report finds that “housing cost burden has increased for renters and owners of all income groups, but very low-income households [less than 50% of AMI, or less than $47,350 for a household of 2] experienced large increases in severe cost burden since 1990. Above-moderate income households now face rent burden, which they did not in 1990.”
Households earning less than 50% of AMI ($47,350 for a household of 2) face a situation where housing costs consume 50% or more of income.
The way people make do in SF is by living together:
“San Francisco exceeded the region in the rate of growth for couple households (without children or other family members) and roommate households,” the report said. “These households are also more likely to be higher income as they are able to combine incomes from multiple working household members.”
This is why San Francisco is a place where people with relatively high incomes can feel squeezed. Earning less than 120% of AMI for an individual worker, thus earning less than $91,200 a year.
It's no secret that housing prices in the US are on the climb.
We teamed up with Trulia to see just how far $250,000 — about the cost of an entry-level home when you consider the United States' median listing and sale prices— will get you in the biggest city in every state.
Turns out, home purchasing power can vary drastically depending on where you live. In Wichita, Kansas, $250,000 can buy you a five-bedroom house that's more than 3,500 square feet. For just a little more money, you can purchase a 420 square-foot studio apartment in Washington, DC.
From Denver to New York City, see how big of a home $250,000 will get you in the biggest city in every state, ranked by price per square foot.
Listing price: $255,000
Square feet: 4,791
Price per square foot: $53
Kansas City, Missouri
Listing price: $250,000
Square feet: 3,560
Price per square foot: $70
Listing price: $250,000
Square feet: 3,504
Price per square foot: $71
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
A hunter's paradise is having a hard time finding a buyer.
It's called the Granot Loma, and according to the listing, it may be the largest log-cabin lodge in America.
With a private marina and 5,000 acres of surrounding woodlands, the 26,000-square-foot house was listed for a staggering $40 million in 2015 making it the most expensive house in Michigan.
Bob Sullivan of Northern Michigan Land Brokers formerly had the listing. It is now for sale by its owner for $20 million — a discount of more about 50%.
Keep scrolling for a tour of its taxidermy-filled interiors.
Called Granot Loma, this gigantic log cabin sits on the shores of Lake Superior, north of Marquette, Michigan.
It was built and named in 1923 by its original owner, financier Louis G. Kaufman.
Kaufman played a pivotal role in the founding of General Motors, where he was on the board for 20 years.
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
"Million Dollar Listing" star Ryan Serhant told us how he defines success: "It's not about money. It's not about lifestyle. It's not about building a bigger team or anything. It's that I set goals for myself, and I write them down every year, and if I hit those goals I have been successful that year."
In an episode of Business Insider's podcast "This Is Success," Serhant told us about his unlikely rise from a struggling actor — he even had a hand-modeling gig — to the top of the New York City real-estate world in just about a decade.
The Serhant Team, part of Nest Seekers International, is the top real-estate team by sales volume in New York and No. 2 in the country, according to Real Trends' rankings for 2017. The team closed deals worth $838,237,545 in 2017. Serhant also recently got his own show, "Sell It Like Serhant," and a vlog where he shares the best lessons he's learned.
In September, he'll also be a published author. I had a chance to read a copy of his upcoming book, "Sell It Like Serhant," and it's full of sales tactics anyone can use in their career. We started our conversation with what he considers the fundamental rule of selling.
Listen to the full episode here:
Subscribe to "This Is Success" on Apple Podcasts, Google Play, or your favorite podcast app. Check out previous episodes with:
Transcript edited for clarity.
Ryan Serhant: People don't want to be sold, but they love shopping with friends. If you can remember that, it'll change the way you go into any sales pitch for the rest of your life. And you won't put on your salesperson's hat. You won't walk up to someone and say, "Can I help you with something?" You'll start every conversation the way you did the first time you met your best friend, right? And every friend we have, at one point in time, started as a stranger, but then we met them, and we became friends with them. And people like shopping with their friends, and they will spend money. So if you just remember that people hate being sold but they love shopping with friends, you will change your sales game.
An unlikely path to real estate
Richard Feloni: What do you think it is about your personality that drove you into sales?
Serhant: Oh man. I mean, I was not born a salesperson whatsoever. I think a lot of people watch "Million Dollar Listing" or watch "Sell It Like Serhant"— I think what people's mindset was of me was based on what they see on Bravo, which is young, successful, money money money money. But that's what people like to see on the show.
But I was the shyest, weirdest, most awkward kid ever growing up, and it was the last thing in the world I thought I would ever do. Like, if you had told 10-year-old me I would grow up to be a real-estate broker in New York City, I probably would have thought that you were on crack or something. Like, it made no sense. But I moved to New York City to be an actor, which didn't work out, and then I hand-modeled, which worked out, but I didn't want to be a professional hand model the rest of my life.
Feloni: How did you find those gigs?
Serhant: Hand modeling happened because someone saw a headshot of mine where I had, like, my hand up on my chin, and an agent called me and was like, "Hey, AT&T wants to see you." I was like, "Oh, wow, awesome. Like, a modeling gig, that would be great." They're like, "Well, sort of. It's for your hands." I was like, "For my hands? What are you talking about?" I was like, "Like George Costanza? Or like David Duchovny from 'Zoolander,' something like that?" And they're like, "Yeah, yeah, yeah, but it's a big business."
And so I went into this casting call for AT&T when they were doing this ad campaign where they were painting people's hands to look like different countries and then holding BlackBerrys in the middle of them. Long story short, they really liked my hands, and that paid my rent for a long time.
But yeah, so I was very, very socially awkward and very, very weird, but I was forced because my back was up against a wall. I was forced to develop a thicker skin and to come out of my shell and really try to create a personality that was OK with talking to strangers, which totally freaked me out when I first moved to New York. And I think that that kind of ability of mine to just go up to anybody on the street and ask them their name and how they're doing, without feeling any shame whatsoever, has really helped me in my sales business.
Feloni: Well how did you start that in the first place?
Serhant: I was broke. It's very important for all people who are commission-based, who are incentive-based that way to really figure out what their wall is, right? I call it the four W's: your work, your win, your why, and your wall. And that wall is really important.
So for me, I was trying to act in a city. I was doing a lot of free theater. I was playing a clock. I was playing random stuff on, like, the west side—
Feloni: What do you mean playing a clock?
Serhant: I was in a free play that was like off-off-off-off-off-Broadway in a basement in Union Square where literally I played a clock in, like, this rendition of Edgar Allan Poe stories. And so I stood there for like half an hour with my hands going tick-tock, tick-tock, tick-tock. It was, like, the worst.
Feloni: Oh, wow.
Serhant: It was so hard.
Feloni: That's not a good role.
Serhant: No, it is not a good role. But it was New York City. The word "Broadway" was in there somewhere. And I just ran out of money. I ran out of money.
I didn't want to get a quote-unquote survival job, meaning that I didn't want to wait tables or bartend, because then I'd be stuck doing that. I knew a lot of actors in the city who were 50 years old and still on their survival job, right, which then isn't a survival job — I mean, that's now your job job, and now you're trying to act as a hobby, because you get used to paying your bills. And I didn't want to do that, so I literally pushed myself to the point where I just ran out of money and had my debit card declined at Food Emporium on 59th Street trying to buy a pack of tofu, and then cried on the subway. And that was my wall, right? That was, like, that moment for the rest of my life that I wanted to run away from as hard as possible, and I had to be shameless about it.
So I got my real-estate license because a friend told me to, and my first day in the business was September 15, 2008. So that was the day Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy.
Feloni: That doesn't sound like a good time to get into real estate.
Serhant: In hindsight, it was the best time. At the time, it was probably the worst time ever. I say in hindsight because a lot of people got out of the business because they had a lifestyle to uphold, right? They knew business when it was good, and then all of a sudden you stop doing deals and stop making money. How are you going to pay your mortgage? How are you going to make your car payments? How are you going to put your kids through that private school?
Feloni: You had nothing to lose.
Serhant: I had no money.
Serhant: So all these brokers were getting out of the business, and I was, like, by myself. And I had nothing to lose, so I went into the Starbucks on 49th and Madison and talked to people. I would go up to pregnant women and I would ask them if they needed more space. Like, I would go up to people coming out of Saks Fifth Avenue, because our office was right there, and if they had more than two shopping bags I'd go up to them and ask them if they wanted to invest in real estate, just because I had nothing to lose. And if I completely failed in New York City, it meant I had to move home to Colorado and paint fences for the rest of my life, and that was hell to me.
Feloni: I mean, if you're being motivated by fear, does that ever become — did it ever feel toxic in a way?
Serhant: Sure. It's a mixture, right? You kind of ride, and I think everyone rides this seesaw every day of fear on one side and confidence on the other. And you can't sit and just hold the seesaw down on one end. Because if you're just afraid all the time, you're never going to do anything. And the flip side, if you're just totally confident all the time, you're going to be an a--hole, and no one's going to ever want to work with you.
So you have to find that balance of where the fear in you to succeed pushes you enough to find a confidence to do what you need to do every single day — to, over time, become successful. And the definition of success then changes, because it becomes relative. Like, success to me when I first got into the business was paying my rent on time, and it was like $1,100 a month, every month. If I could do that and maybe, like, save a month's worth of rent, I was a freaking success.
Now things have changed. And so I use that fear of not having money and needing to make money, but I balanced it out with this kind of confidence of building my personality and coming out of my shell, and kind of treating it like an acting job, like an improv class. Everyone I met I was going to adapt to the way they wanted to see me, and I was going to sell them real estate, even though I had no idea what I was doing.
Feloni: Can you tell me about this phone call that you had with your brother that you had talked about before?
Serhant: You did read the book.
Serhant: So that was kind of an aha moment for me, because the first couple of years in the real-estate business in New York City are terrible — like, you make no money. And there was this one guy in the office who was crushing it, like, every day, and he was about my age, right, and he just did so well, and I had no idea how he did it, because we were basically like the same person. And I thought: Well, I went to a better school. I did this. I did that. Why is this guy so much better, and why do I suck?
And I stepped out onto the fire escape and I called my older brother one day — I think this was in like 2009 — and I was like, "You know what, this sucks. I want to quit. I shouldn't be a real-estate broker. I'm not from New York." I just gave him every single excuse possible, and what I really remember from that phone call was him saying to me, "Stop being such a little b----. If he can do it, you can do it. Stop wasting my time. Go out and work harder." And I was like, "Wait, what? Can you make me feel better for, like, one second here? That's why I called you." And he did not make me feel better whatsoever.
But I have that kind of thing that he said to me ringing in my ears all the time, which is — and I know it's a little profane — but him saying to me "stop being such a little b----" reminded me that I was crying and giving excuses for something that I could just take care of on my own. And that really woke me up to figuring out kind of how to build a career instead of just having a job where I was showing apartments.
Learning how to be a salesman — and a TV star
Feloni: So you kind of approached from going from a shy kid, as you were explaining, to just — I mean, if anyone sees you on TV even, you just exude confidence. So, like, from A to B. At that point, did it start just because you almost took it like an acting role, like of yourself?
Serhant: Yes. Because I had to figure out something that I could control, right? When you first get into the sales business — or any business really — you're nervous. Like, you're freaked out. "I'm not going to do well.""My boss is going to fire me.""Everyone else is better than me." And I had all of those feelings. I had no confidence in what I was doing, because I had never done it before. I'd never rented someone an apartment and taken their financial information. I had never sold an apartment before. I was dealing with money that made no sense to me, because I had never had it before.
So it was important for me to try to figure out what I could control at that stage in my life, and what I could control is what I knew. And so I would go on these broker tours, and I would watch other real-estate brokers give tours. And because they had been in the business for 10, 20 years, they didn't really know everything about the building or the block or the neighborhood, but they really rested on their confidence, because they had done a lot of deals. Like, that's what they knew. So I didn't have that. But what I had was the ability to memorize information, because I had spent my whole life trying to be an actor, so I could memorize information really, really well. So what I told myself was: Listen, I'm going to rely on what I know, and no one is going to say, "Wow, you're too new to this business," or "You're too young," because I'm going to know more than anybody else.
And so I would memorize as much as I possibly could about the building I was going to show, the block that I was going to be on. I'd do my research on that entire neighborhood so that no one would ever look at me like a young kid doing business. Like, I could tell you that on the corner of 12th Street downtown and Fifth Avenue, that building on the corner has 142 units in it, and it was built in 1911, right, and the super's name is Tony. That was good information for me to have, that all I had to do was figure it out and memorize it, and that was then my confidence. So that's what helped me balance out that seesaw.
Feloni: At what point did you realize that, hey, this might actually be something more than just a side gig?
Serhant: Yesterday. I mean, I could tell you about every deal I've ever done, but it took years of doing them over and over before I really figure out, you know what, maybe this thing is going to work. Like, even after "Million Dollar Listing" started. Like, I got cast on "Million Dollar Listing" in 2010. We filmed the whole first season in 2011. I almost died because I was so stressed out the whole time. And then it came out in 2012. And even then the market was so terrible. It was so hard. I still didn't know, like, was I going to do this the rest of my life? Was this really going to be my thing?
Feloni: Even when you were on TV doing it?
Serhant: Yeah, because the show hadn't come out yet, and I was still trying to figure out what I wanted to do. Maybe I went back and got my master's, I don't know. I came to New York to do theater, and I hand-modeled a little bit — now all of a sudden I'm selling real estate on TV. Like, this was not the plan.
But it kind of was the plan in a weird, backwards way. Like, there is no path, right? That's why I try to say yes to as much as possible, and you figure out the path along the way. When people ask me, like, what kind of mindset I had going into this business, I really think back to when I was a little kid, and I made the decision when I was a little kid to be successful, and hopefully it would be through acting because I think I could be the next Brad Pitt. Clearly didn't work out. And it ended up being as a real-estate agent, and a real-estate agent who's on reality TV.
But I chose success first and let the career come second. A lot of people have problems, and they get depressed, and they move out of a city, or they call their parents every day crying because they chose a career first and success second. And when that one career doesn't happen or doesn't happen the way you think it is, then it's not a speed bump — people treat it like a brick wall. But speed bumps are there for a reason. And maybe you go down a different road. Maybe you figure something else out. And everyone can be a great salesperson if they really think back to, like, everything they learned when they were in fourth grade.
Feloni: How do you mean?
Serhant: Meaning that, like, in fourth grade, third grade, fifth grade, you learn to share. You learn to talk to the person next to you. You learn to talk to the girl for the first time or the boy for the first time. You learn deadlines for homework. You learn everything that is intrinsic in being a good businessperson when you're 8, 9, 10, 11 years old. And holding on to those attributes, as well as kind of pushing out your personality as much as you can, makes you a good salesperson.
Feloni: You're talking about "Million Dollar Listing." How did you end up on that show in the first place?
Serhant: How did I end up on "Million Dollar Listing"? I went to an open casting call in March of 2010 with 3,000 real-estate agents at the Hudson Hotel, and they picked three.
Feloni: At that point, were you even, like — did you feel qualified to be on the show as, like, a—
Serhant: No. But, like, I went into the audition on that fear side of the seesaw really hard — like, scared sh--less that, like, what am I doing, how am I going to do this — until I saw all these people. And then I said: You know what, I've been in front of cameras before. I've done some TV before. I was Dr. Evan Walsh IV on "As The World Turns." I can do reality TV. I might not be the best real-estate agent. I might not have the résumé that all these other people do. But I'm going to flip that seesaw over, and I'm going to ride the confidence side for a heartbeat here.
And that's exactly, I think, what they wanted to see, was someone who was steadfast in their beliefs. So I just went in there and sold myself hard, and then they bought it, and here I am.
Feloni: So you played the role of being one of the best agents in the city.
Feloni: And then just kind of led to it.
Serhant: Yeah. I mean, I think they asked me, like, "Who's the best real-estate agent?" And I think my answer literally was, "You're looking at him." Not necessarily true, but also not untrue. Like, I can believe that I'm the best, and no one — who's going to tell me something else? It's really going to come down to kind of the way I portray myself, right? It's like that classic PR story that advertising is now dead and PR rules the world of promotion. And so if I scream my own success from a mountaintop, people will hear it, and that's how you'll build your persona, your personality, your career that way.
Feloni: In growing into this role, even now being on TV, is there ever a chance that you would lose yourself in a role where it lacks some authenticity?
Serhant: As a salesperson?
Serhant: No, I don't think so. I think I use the skills that I learned in improv and acting school and in college to build my personality. And when I say build my personality, I don't want people to think I created, like, a fake persona to go out and sell. What I mean is that I was shy and overweight, and I really liked watching movies in my apartment by myself, and I didn't want to go out and talk to people, because people made me nervous. But because I had to, because my back was up against a wall, and I needed to make money, and real estate was now the thing that I was going to do because a friend told me to do it, I had to improvise. I had to be OK with going outside and talking to people on the street and in Starbucks and meeting strangers and showing them apartments I had never seen before. And I had to figure it out, and you do that by saying yes. You do that by kind of putting on a protective shield a little bit and not going out there as the Ryan who just wanted to Netflix and chill, but the Ryan who is going to be an awesome salesperson today, who can Netflix and chill a little bit later.
Feloni: I think a lot of people, when they think of salespeople, they think of the used-car salesman, or they think of the monorail guy from "The Simpsons."
Feloni: Kind of, like, just selling you something you don't want. By the end you feel tricked, and it's all about just flattery and fakery.
Serhant: I think every business has some stereotype. Whether you're an attorney or a banker or a doctor, there's some negative stereotype that goes with it. So a lot of salespeople are like that. They put on their salesperson's hat and they just sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, which can work here and there, but it's not going to work in the long term, because you'll build bad relationships.
Sales isn't about pushing. It's not about convincing somebody, right, which is what the used-car salesman and the "Simpsons" character kind of make you think. What a good salesperson is able to do is to assure someone of a choice that they were going to make anyway, or of a choice they should make because it's better for them than an alternative choice.
Even if it's selling shoes — like, you went in there to buy a $100 pair of shoes, and you want to start running on the West Side Highway because that's what your friends do. The salesperson could just sell them to you. He could take you to the $200 pair of shoes and sell you those because those are more expensive. Or he could say, "Have you run before?" And you might say no. "OK, well, the $100 pair of shoes here are for more advanced runners; they don't have much of a sole. There's a $125 pair and a $150 pair that have a more cushion to them, and this is what more first-time runners wear, but it's up to you." Now you all of a sudden feel assured in your decision to spend a little bit more money, so the salesperson did their job as a salesperson, but you're also making a purchase that's probably better for your knees, better for your ankles, better for your Achilles tendon, because the salesperson assured you of a choice that you were going to make anyway, but a better one, right?
That's what a good salesperson should do. And on my other show on Bravo, "Sell Like Serhant," that was so hard to teach people, because they would come into the store every day with their salesperson hat on and they just wanted to sell, sell, sell, sell, sell, when it's really not about that.
Building and managing a team
Feloni: How did you learn to be a leader?
Serhant: Through failure. Through, like, terrible, terrible management skills.
Feloni: Because at this point, hadn't you only just started to figure yourself out?
Serhant: Yeah. I think I saw that, as a manager and as a leader, people, what they really want, is two things.
They want business. Everyone wants to succeed. So I needed to help my team get business and succeed, the same way a football team can't exist if the quarterback doesn't throw the ball somewhere, right?
And I needed to be a nice person. I saw teams that failed and companies that failed because they were run by people who were just dicks, and they just were mean. And I kind of took — what do you call it? What's that saying? Like, "Do unto others as you wish they would do unto you," what is that?
Feloni: Yeah, the golden rule.
Serhant: Yeah, the golden rule. Right.
Serhant: Like, that's the best leadership advice I could give to anybody. Otherwise, people don't want to work for you, and there's so many places people could go to work. Like, they don't need to work for you. There's a lot of places to go. And so as long as I was putting business out there, working harder than everyone who works for me so that I could lead by example and practice the golden rule, my team just slowly, naturally started to build.
Feloni: And then having a TV presence, I would imagine that that can be seen as kind of, like, a running ad for your business and for your team's business. But on the other hand, I would imagine that at some points it could work against you if someone would be like, "Oh, this is just the guy from TV."
Serhant: Yeah. I mean, I have to pitch against that attitude every single day. I mean, "Million Dollar Listing" helped me open doors, but it didn't open any doors. It wasn't like the show came out and then all of New York City called me to list or help them buy an apartment. I mean, when was the last time you picked up the phone and called the Kardashians? Like, you don't do that, right, because they're on TV.
And so that's what I thought was going to happen. Did not happen whatsoever, but it helped me open doors by being able to say, "Listen, I'm a real-estate agent, and I think I'm pretty good at what I do. Also, I'm on a television show that airs to 25 million people around the world. I would love to meet you to talk about selling your home." And some people — not all, but some people — would then add me into the mix. And I still had to do my thing when I was in the room; I still had to pitch really hard.
And the show is a great kind of advertisement for me, but by the time it comes out, everything that we've put on there has either sold or not sold, so it's not like "Million Dollar Listing" helps me sell individual properties. It helps me build my business so that I can better sell the properties that I have today.
Feloni: Why do you think that your team has become so successful in this market?
Serhant: We are very disciplined, honestly. We're probably the most disciplined team out there. I think I can be very, very tough, but I trust everyone to do their job, or they can't work for me. Everyone who's on my team is relentless and incredibly aggressive and also very empathetic, and they're all great people.
And so we work incredibly hard, but we have very, very strong discipline. We're not just real-estate agents who list a property, hope to sell it, maybe get another one, hope to sell it. There is almost kind of like a military aspect to it, right, which works for us.
Feloni: Yeah. I saw that last year the magazine The Real Deal, it was saying that, after a few employees left your team, they were trying to connect it to rumors that maybe your TV career was getting in the way with your team. How do you respond to that?
Serhant: My TV career did get in the way a little bit, because, I mean, in 2017 I filmed one season of "Million Dollar Listing," I filmed an entire season of "Sell Like Serhant," which took a lot of time, and I wrote a book all at the same time. It was tough on certain members of the team who are used to me being around a lot more. And so those people who wanted me to be there every single day decided to go and do their own thing, which is fine.
But it was just I think The Real Deal caught on to, like, a couple of them left at the same exact time, which for me, like, just opens up desks, to be honest, and it opened up finding greater new talent. And now, like, I can't imagine my team without those new people that I now have who have helped me grow my business exponentially.
And I still sold more than anybody else last year, so that's kind of that discipline that I've built into the team, that it's not surviving or succeeding based on any one person; it's everyone working together to sell as much as possible.
Feloni: Have you found a way to balance doing — as you say, it's kind of like juggling, like, having so many things at once?
Serhant: Yeah, it's the power of leverage. It's the power of leverage and trusting people to do what they're supposed to do. I remember, well, I don't know, five years ago, six years ago, something like that, as my business was really starting to take off I was super stressed out. I was busy, busy, busy, busy, busy, and I think I was complaining to my wife, Amelia, who was my girlfriend at the time, and just saying, like, "I can't just do this right now. I'm so busy, busy, busy, busy, busy." And she was like, "You know what, you say that all the time. You know who's busy? Obama. You're a real-estate agent. You're not that busy."
And when people say they're busy, it just means that they're really bad at time management. I know people say that all the time, but it really is true. And they try to do too much by themselves, which is what I was trying to do, because I thought that that's what I was supposed to do.
And so I brought in more admin staff. So my team alone has six admin staff members who just help my team. No other real-estate team has that. And I really, really leveraged myself onto my team members, and really pushed them to be better than I am, and really brought in team members who were honestly better than me so that they were able to do the things that I could do — just happen to be better — so that way I could do the TV shows and spend the time to write a book without business failing.
Feloni: So that's almost like the other side of your lesson of "always say yes."
Serhant: Yeah. Well, it's "say yes to help," right? Say yes to help. A lot of people in my situation — and you see it too with the other guys on the show — they do a lot by themselves, and then they're busy all the time. And then when they decide to go on vacation, all business stops. Like, that's not what I want. When I'm away, I want more things to sell, right? That's like what a good boss creates within any kind of company.
And so I really kind of said yes to leveraging myself, said yes to letting go, said yes to bringing on more business and figuring out how to do it later. Like, that's really been a key to my success over the last 10 years, saying yes to business that I didn't know how I was going to handle and figuring it out.
Feloni: We talked about, like, at that point how you defined success when you were desperate — at this point, when you're at the peak of your success, how do you define it now?
Serhant: Now I define success by hitting goals that I set for myself. And it's not about money. It's not about lifestyle. It's not about building a bigger team or anything. It's that I set goals for myself, and I write them down every year, and if I hit those goals I have been successful that year. If I don't hit those goals, then I have failed that year.
That way, success isn't this big lofty thing that's up there in the clouds, and it's not just like, "I want to be a billionaire." Like, that's stupid, right? There's no plan of action that's set there. There's nothing that drives me crazier than someone who comes to me, says, "Yo, I'm an entrepreneur. This is what I do. This is what I sell. I sell this. I do this. I'm building this company." I'm like, "OK, what did you do last week?" They're like, "Well, I was in the Hamptons last week, played golf on Sunday, but, like, Monday through Friday." No, no, no. Like, if you want to build your own business, you do it seven days a week. I did not take a single day off for three years. And it's easy for me to say now: It's really, really hard to do, and it's really hard for a lot of people to do as well. So you have to figure out what you really, really want and stick to it.
The other thing I would say is: You don't have to do it by yourself when you start. That's probably a mistake that I made. I think I would've grown faster, but I started by myself because I didn't have that intuitiveness to real estate. I didn't really know that that's what I wanted to do. It was kind of weird. I didn't see myself as being a real-estate broker. I didn't even like real-estate brokers. And so I was doing other things at the same time. If I had maybe worked on someone else's team, if I had maybe worked for another company, if I had maybe learned by watching successful people do what they do instead of just trying by myself to do it, it would've been better.
Feloni: Well, thank you so much, Ryan. I really appreciate it.
Serhant: Thank you for having me.
Atlantic City seems to be getting back in the game.
The recent legalization of sports betting can only help the casino-driven local economy, experts say. But developers are also looking beyond gambling to attract a broader mix of travelers and diversify the city's revenue stream.
"New business is on a parallel track with gaming," said James Wood, president and CEO of Meet AC, a marketing bureau launched in 2014 to position the casino town as a convention destination. "We want to maintain a vibrant economy, just as Las Vegas has a strong non-gaming component."
On the gaming side, the Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, formerly the Trump Taj Mahal, opened in June. In addition to drawing guests who want to gamble, the venue hopes to appeal to music lovers with its focus on entertainment, including at least 50 acts a week and a theater that can seat 7,000, according to a spokesperson.
The Ocean Resort Casino, formerly the Revel, also opened last month. The two launches mark a reversal of the 2014 wave of casino closures. The result of that spate of closings was financial trouble so dire that in 2016, state officials took over fiscal control of the city. With the state's help, the city reached an $80 million tax settlement — related to tax appeals — with casinos; the move helped Atlantic City avoid bankruptcy and positioned it for a rebirth.
Room for more?
In 2016, revenue per available room (RevPAR) grew 19 percent and occupancy grew 45.7 percent year-over-year as the casino closures resulted in a drop in supply. In 2017, occupancy and revenue per room was nearly equivalent to 2016; the number of rooms grew by 324 in the same period. The increased inventory led to a 9 percent dip in Atlantic City's revenue per available room, down to $51.96, in the first five months of 2018 versus the year-ago period, according to STR, a data and analytics specialist.
Industry insiders see the push to diversify attractions in the city as the key to fueling more demand for the added room supply. Sports betting is a significant part of that diversity, said Dan Hanrahan, a director with CBRE Hotels Advisory, Capital Markets."It may well attract a patron or visitor that might not have come to Atlantic City."
But even stronger help could come from beyond the casinos, he said, such as conventions or the nascent corporate presence: "You need non-high-season business."
The opening of the Hard Rock and the revamped 6.4 million-square-foot Ocean Resort Casino — which developer AC Ocean Walk acquired in January 2018 for $200 million — will add about 3,500 rooms to the supply pool, as well as about 6,500 jobs, according to Mayor Frank Gilliam.
The Tropicana Casino and Resort recently changed hands as well. In April, Carl Icahn announced a $1.85 billion deal to sell Tropicana's real estate to Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc., and to combine its gaming and hotel entities into Eldorado Resorts, the casino entertainment company.
And Showboat owner Bart Blatstein said recently that after reopening the 852-room property as a hotel only — without the original casino — the full capacity of 1,300 rooms will be available this summer.
City officials are looking to fill some of those rooms with convention-goers. The Atlantic City Convention Center has 486,600 contiguous square feet of exhibition space, with 45 meetings rooms and five exhibition halls ranging in size from 29,400 to 199,500 square feet.
All those exhibitors and guests need places to sleep, and the hotel market appears to have seen gains through the marketing of the convention center. In 2016, the number of rooms booked increased 22 percent year-over-year, to 213,189, coinciding with wider marketing of the center and new amenities. In 2017, the total number of rooms booked due to conventions or shows rose to 219,839, an additional 3 percent increase over the prior year, according to data provided by Meet AC.
In addition to trade shows and new casinos, events involving multiplayer video games and other e-sports are an area for growth, according to Meet AC's Wood. He also said that large amateur competitions that bring in beach volleyball and basketball teams are spurring demand. Then there are emerging sports such as beach pole vaulting or long-drive contests, an offshoot of golf in which participants try to hit the longest drive. Last month, the World Long Drive Association convened in Atlantic City.
Getting to betting
As for the potential impact of tourism driven by sports wagering, one variable for hotels will be the length of stays generated by the bettors, Hanrahan said.
Day trips by bus to Atlantic City are easy to book from all over the East Coast, so the question is, will sports bettors go that route, or will they arrange for overnight stays to coincide with sports events? Keeping sports bettors overnight may be as simple as providing in-play betting, which allows for wagers throughout the games in real time. It's a factor that brings a new activity to hotels, said Hanrahan, and more activity adds more demand. But it's too early speculate on numbers.
Although the growth of online sports wagering could keep bettors at home, experts see online activity as supporting in-casino activity.
"Early fears that Internet gaming would cannibalize land-based casino revenues have largely been dismissed," according to Rummy Pandit, executive director of the Lloyd D. Levenson Institute of Gaming Hospitality & Tourism. Pandit's 2017 report on the issue cited gains in land-based gaming in 2015 and 2016.
As the market matures, the real competitor may not be online sports betting, said Hanrahan, but sports books in other states. "As more states come online, [Atlantic City's draw] may become diluted," he said.
Away from casinos
Visitors to Atlantic City may be surprised at the new string of hip food destinations on South Tennessee Avenue.
Local developer Mark Callazzo, CEO of Alpha Funding Solutions, is opening the Tennessee Avenue Beer Hall this summer. That debut follows the Hayday coffee shop and the just-opened Made Atlantic City Chocolate, a bean-to-bar chocolate shop where desserts and cocktails are served. The impetus for it all, he said, came from a conversation with a group of millennial employees who said they choose not to live in Atlantic City because it lacks walkability.
"There is no main street. If you walked between the bars, it would be like seven miles," Callazzo said.
Joining him in raising the hip quotient is Asbury Park developer Patrick Fasano, who is working to bring new restaurant options nearby. Fasano's arrival is an important vote of confidence, according to Callazzo. "Here's an out-of-area guy believing in Atlantic City," he said.
Another major part of diversifying the town's economic base is the $220 million Stockton Gateway Project, which contains a six-acre campus for Stockton University, and the new, 72,000-square-foot headquarters of South Jersey Gas. New industry could also bring overnight guests to the area.
Stockton's beachfront campus, which will support 1,000 students and provide apartments for more than 500, is scheduled to open in the fall of 2018. Stockton's neighbor, South Jersey Gas, will work out of a new six-story office tower with about 200 employees. It is scheduled for completion in late 2018.
The developments all add up to evidence that revitalization is coming, block by block, said Mayor Gilliam. "We are going to continue to tackle the blight."
Becoming a homeowner is often more complicated than one expects. It's also more expensive — millennials buying their first home today will pay 39% more than baby boomers who bought their first home in the 1980s.
In today's homebuying climate, it's important to take out an affordable mortgage— and even better to do so on an undervalued home. That's according to SmartAsset, which recently released a report on the most underrated cities in the US to live in based on current vs. potential housing values.
SmartAsset created a statistical model for 200 cities investigating how housing values, represented by price per square foot, were affected by eight quality of life metrics: unemployment rates, high school graduation rates, percent of residents with a college degree, crime rate, entertainment establishment density, average days of rain, average days of bad weather, and walk score.
The model (formally, a linear regression model) shows the positive or negative impact each of those eight measures had on housing prices. To determine how overvalued or undervalued a particular city was, SmartAsset compared the model's prediction for housing prices in that city based on how the city fared on the eight quality of life measures to the actual price per square foot in the city. SmartAsset ranked undervalued cities based on how much lower their actual housing prices were than the prices projected by the model.
For example, the average home in Los Angeles, California, is worth nearly $425 per square foot, according to Zillow. But according to SmartAsset's model, it should be worth nearly $525 per square foot — so residents are saving almost $100.
More than half of top 10 undervalued cities are located on the eastern side of the US.
Below, see the best places to buy a home where the average property is worth at least $80 less than what it should to worth.
31. Columbia, Missouri
Projected value per square foot: $178.08
Actual value per square foot: $98
30. Santa Ana, California
Projected value per square foot: $447.13
Actual value per square foot: $366.75
29. Omaha, Nebraska
Projected value per square foot: $196.89
Actual value per square foot: $115.17
See the rest of the story at Business Insider
Yesterday’s Census Bureau report on housing construction bodes well for home buyers, as the pace of housing completions increased 2.2 percent over last year. The continued year-over-year growth in completions means more homes on the market in the short-term, offering some immediate relief in alleviating housing supply shortages.
“The growth in the pace of housing completions, now at a 1.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate, means we’re almost at a 3-year low in the gap between housing supply and demand.”
The growth in the pace of housing completions, now at a 1.26 million seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR), means we’re almost at a 3-year low in the gap between housing supply and demand. As builders start work on additional housing, we will inch closer to balancing inventory with demand. But, with millennials entering household formation age and baby boomers living longer and more independently than previous generations, builders will remain under pressure to keep up with the growing demand.
While the increase in completions is a welcome sign, two measures of future housing supply declined. Building permits decreased 3.0 percent since this time last year, while housing starts fell 4.2 percent, indicating a slight decrease in the longer-term production pipeline of new housing supply.
However, another important metric indicates we may see further increases in housing construction soon. Construction labor, which saw an increase of nearly 4,000 residential construction jobs between May 2018 and June 2018, supports further improvement in the pace of home-building and signals that housing construction is likely going to increase in the months ahead.
June 2018 Housing Starts
For the month of June 2018, the new residential construction report shows that:
Chief Economist Analysis Highlights
What Insight Does Monthly Housing Start Data Provide?
Housing starts data reports the number of housing units on which construction has been started in the month reported, providing a gauge of future real estate supply levels. The source of monthly housing starts data is the “New Residential Construction Report” issued by the U.S. Census Bureau jointly with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). The data is derived from surveys of homebuilders nationwide, and three metrics are provided: building permits, housing starts and housing completions. Building permits are a leading indicator of housing starts and completions, providing insight into the housing market and overall economic activity in upcoming months. Housing starts reflect the commitment of home builders to new construction, as home builders usually don't start building a house unless they are confident it will sell upon completion. Changes in the pace of housing starts tells us a lot about the future supply of homes available in the housing market. In addition, increase in housing starts can lead to increases in construction employment, which benefits the overall economy. Once the home is completed and sold, it generates revenue for the home builder and other related industries, and is added to the housing stock.